Tensions in Eastern Ukraine have been on edge since 2013 when trouble started in the Crimean Peninsula resulting in the Annexation of the region by Russia in March of 2014. The Ukrainian separatists' ambitiondid not stop there however, and with the support of Russia the area commonly known as the DonBass (Basin of the lower Don River) erupted into civil war through the summer of 2014. This conflict was backed by Russian Regular Army troops ‘vacationing’ in the region, followed by an intervention by the Russian 76th Guards Air Assault Division and other Russian forces. A cease fire put a temporary halt to the fighting at the end of August 2014 but Russian troop movements and occupation of the DonBass did not end. Separatists in the Donetsk and Lugansk Oblasts continued to receive material and military support from Russia through 2015 and well into 2016. President Putin of Russia calls the area Novorossiya in reference to a 1900’s era region called ‘New Russia’ which stretches along the Black Sea coast to the borders of Moldova and the disputed area of Transnistria.
Moldova is a struggling democratic republic suffering from split demographics, chronic corruption, and a political landscape torn between hard line Communist who sympathise with Russia, and Liberal Democrats who wish to foster ties with the West, all complicated by a significant Ukrainian population. The area of Transnistria rests on the east side of the Dniester River bordering the Ukraine. The population of this small area, which is evenly split between ethnic Moldovans, Russians and Ukrainians has ignited into varies succession movements striving either to become independent, join with the Ukraine or re-join Russia. A cease fire was put in place in July 92 but dissent, negotiation and discontent continue today.
Russia is nothing if not opportunistic. It sees NATO as fragmented and weak, the US embroiled into a bitter election campaign, and the European Union in crisis because of constitutional challenges, and the ongoing Syrian Refugee crisis. Perhaps now is the time to make Novorossiya a reality! What better time than when Americans are busy exercising their democratic freedom – election day 2016.
Road to War!
5 November 2016: Tiraspol, Transnistra region, Moldova. Almost 20,000 people are involved in a violent demonstration against the Moldovan Government in reaction to several deadly clashes with police and army forces during the previous 48 hours. An estimated 27 people are dead and the city is under martial law. The EU has declared support for the Moldovan Government but Russia has come out vehemently in support of the Ethnic Russian people of Moldova and Transnistra and condemned the oppressive, corrupt and dictatorial government in Chiinu.
6 November 2016: In response to movement of Russian forces in the Rostov area and the redeployment of some of the forces Russia had stationed in Syria, the US announces that it will deploy the ‘Ready Raptor’ Squadron (95th Fighter Sqn, F-22s) and the newly equipped Lightning II Sqn (34 Fighter Sqn, F-35A) to Bezmer Bulgaria, along with other precautionary moves. Moscow declares this a provocation and increases the rhetoric. NATO vacillates but some forces are grudgingly put on a higher state of readiness.
7 November 2016: A major skirmish in a Refugee camp in Greece has captured the attention of Europe, several hundred are dead including at least 35 aid workers and 3 journalists. The Greek Government is requesting an emergency meeting of the European Parliament. Late in the day a series of explosions shake Istanbul and Ankara coupled with a major attack by Syrian based Kurdish rebels which crosses the Turkish border in three places and inflicts significant damage and destruction. The Turkish Army is counter attacking.
8 November 2016 – US Election Day: The world wakes toa video of several hundred naked men, women and children lined up facing a ditch as they are gunned down from behind. RT news breaks the story of the ‘Massacre in Moldova’ which is instantly picked up by every new agency on the planet. Some experts question authenticity but are quickly overruled by a ravenous parade of hard liners demanding justice.
Russia obliges.